Polymarket’s $9B Valuation Under Scrutiny After Double-Counted Trades Revealed
Polymarket's reported $9 billion valuation faces skepticism following the discovery of double-counted trades that artificially inflated its trading activity. Paradigm researchers identified a systemic data issue affecting nearly all analytics platforms tracking the prediction market.
The problem stems from how Polymarket's smart contracts record "OrderFilled" events—each trade generates two entries (for Maker and taker) that analytics platforms mistakenly counted as separate transactions. This technical artifact, unrelated to wash trading, created a distorted view of market activity.
Complex on-chain operations like position splits and merges compounded the reporting inaccuracies. The revelation challenges perceptions of Polymarket's scale and highlights broader challenges in verifying decentralized finance metrics.